from 01.01.2016 to 01.01.2026
Krasnodar, Krasnodar, Russian Federation
JEL B51 Socialist • Marxian • Sraffian
JEL B52 Historical • Institutional • Evolutionary • Modern Monetary Theory
JEL O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.5
UDC 330.342
Modern economic science is undergoing a paradigm crisis: classical theories, including Marxist theory, do not describe the transformations caused by digitalization, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies. There is no systematic long-term forecast of innovative changes covering the period of a possible technological singularity. The author, developing his general theory of economic formation, seeks to endow it with predictive dimension and identify the patterns of technologies and phase transitions. The purpose of the study is to construct a positive technological forecast of the innovative transformation of the factors and mode of production, from the era of technological presingularity to the final phase where creative consciousness becomes the primary resource. The work addresses the following tasks: expanding the theory through a forecast of innovations across five factors (labor, land, capital, energy, information); describing phase transitions; refining the concept of presingularity; characterizing the five singular phases. The methodological framework comprises structural-semantic modeling of the relationships between innovations and technological breakthroughs; an extrapolated forecast based on trend analysis in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, energy, and bioengineering; and a synthesis of data from natural science, futurological, economic, and regulatory literature. The sample covers technological forecasts selected according to the criterion of describing the factors of production. As a result, six successive phases in the development of the economic formation are identified. For the era of technological presingularity, innovations are identified that activate all five factors through digital ecosystems, symbiosis with artificial intelligence, and distributed energy grids. The first phase of singularity marks the transition to a post-labor society with universal basic income and horizontal network structures. Subsequent phases describe the evolution from quantum production and bioeconomic systems to the manipulation of the laws of physics, where the economy gives way to cosmic creativity. In the long term, consciousness becomes a meta-factor of production, and economic relations transform into the management of reality. The results are applicable to strategic planning of scientific and technological development, long-term forecasts for government agencies, and interdisciplinary research on economic evolution. The limitations are associated with the hypothetical nature of the distant phases and the lack of empirical verification. Future research requires clarification of the economic mechanisms of distribution under conditions of abundance and analysis of the ethical aspects of integrating consciousness and technology.
evolutionary metatheory, paradigmatism, digital economy, innovation forecast, technological singularity, synthesis of science and technology, post-Marxism
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