graduate student from 01.01.2023 until now
North-Western Main Branch of the Bank of Russia (Leading Economist)
from 01.01.2021 until now
Volgograd State University (kafedra ekonomicheskoy teorii, regional'noy ekonomiki i predprinimatel'stva)
graduate student from 01.09.2023 until now
Saint-Petersburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
JEL E27 Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
JEL E32 Business Fluctuations • Cycles
JEL E61 Policy Objectives • Policy Designs and Consistency • Policy Coordination
JEL E65 Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
JEL C32 Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.5
CSCSTI 06.03
CSCSTI 06.52
CSCSTI 06.71
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 6501
Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 6530
Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 7711
The article examines the fundamental factors determining the dynamics of Russia's industrial production in the context of a large-scale structural transformation of the economy under the influence of sanctions pressure. Based on the methodology of dynamic factor models (DFM), a comprehensive analysis of structural changes in industry for the period 2011-2025 was carried out. The research methodology is based on the construction and interpretation of a dynamic factor model that includes 67 macroeconomic indicators. The main stage of modeling was characterized by the use of the principal component method to extract latent factors. Special attention was paid to the economic interpretation of the identified factors through the analysis of the matrix of factor loadings. The final stage of the simulation included the construction of a regression model to assess the impact of the identified factors on industrial production. As a result of the analysis, six key latent factors determining the dynamics of industrial production were identified and identified.: the factor of business expectations, fiscal policy, the real sector, financial markets, price dynamics and complex structural shifts. Quantitative analysis has shown a significant differentiation of the influence of factors on industrial production. The state of financial markets makes the greatest contribution to the formation of dynamics (31.3%), which indicates the key role of market expectations in modern conditions. The second most important factor is complex structural shifts (23.4%) reflecting fundamental changes in the economy. The real sector and energy sector have an impact on 12.6% of dynamics, price factors — 13%, business expectations — 10.1%, and fiscal policy — 9.5%. The conducted decomposition of the influence of factors made it possible to develop three types of adaptation strategies for various industries: uncertainty management strategy, increased effectiveness of stabilization policy and accelerated structural diversification. The recommendations developed are aimed at increasing the sustainability of the industrial sector and creating new competitive advantages in the context of structural changes in the economy.
structural transformation, industrial policy, sanctions pressure, dynamic factor model (DFM), econometric analysis, contribution decomposition, adaptation strategies, Russian economy
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