Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index

Aleksey Paromov; Olga Elkina

doi:10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45

JEL C43 JEL C82 JEL E27 JEL E65

4 more Collapse

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AS A CATALYST FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGE: ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION BASED ON THE INTEGRAL INDEX Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Issue 1 · Pages 28–45 · Rubric: NEW INDUSTRIALIZATION: THEORETICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECT

DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45

Received: 18.12.2025 Accepted: 23.01.2026 Published: 31.01.2026

Authors

Aleksey Paromov

ORCID

Olga Elkina

ORCID

Aleksey Paromov

Academic degree: candidate of technical sciences

Science rang: docent

North-West Institute of Management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Russian Federation · St Petersburg

ORCID

Olga Elkina

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

North-West Institute of Management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Russian Federation · St Petersburg

ORCID

ABSTRACT

In the context of the transformation of economic sanctions from an instrument of extraordinary policy into a permanent element of international relations, the problem of import dependence is becoming critical. This study aims not only to confirm the thesis of sanctions as a catalyst for structural changes, but also to offer a comprehensive tool for assessing their actual effectiveness, as well as the effectiveness of the import substitution policy. For this purpose, the study developed and tested an integral index of technological sovereignty and competitiveness, combining key indicators of localization, non-primary exports and innovation activity. The objectives of the study include analyzing the impact of sanctions on structural changes in the economy in 2014-2024; developing a methodology for assessing import substitution that takes into account not only the level of localization, but also the dynamics of non-resource exports and innovation potential; identifying industry imbalances and the «innovation lag» in the implementation of current policy.Based on empirical studies, the optimal weight values of each component of the integral index have been identified. An analysis of data on the Russian economy for the period from 2014 to 2024 using this index allowed us to obtain specific results. They indicate a significant adaptive effectiveness of the import substitution policy, expressed in the steady growth of the index. However, the results also revealed a systemic imbalance: tactical successes in import substitution and increasing traditional exports have not yet been supported by an adequate breakthrough in creating their own competitive technologies. Thus, the sanctions have created the necessary window of opportunity, but the transition to a model of sustainable technological growth requires a fundamental reorientation of priorities towards generating innovation and high-tech exports.

KEYWORDS

economic sanctions, import substitution, effectiveness of import substitution policy, localization, non-resource exports, innovation activity, index of technological sovereignty and competitiveness

Text

Text (PDF)

Read Download

1. Hausmann R., Hidalgo C.A., Bastos S., Coscia M., Simoes A. «The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity» MIT Press, - 2014 g. – 368 p. Hidalgo, C. A., & Hausmann, R. The building blocks of economic complexity // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. – 2009. – Vol. 106, № 26. – P. 10570–10575. – URL: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0900943106

2. Hidalgo, C. A., Hausmann R. The building blocks of economic complexity // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. – 2009. – Vol. 106, № 26. – P. 10570–10575. – URL: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0900943106

3. Kiselev, A. Trends and prospects for ensuring the Russian economy competitiveness in the context of economic and political sanctions / A. Kiselev, R. Kolesov // Journal of Regional and International Competitiveness. – 2024. – Vol. 5, No. 3. – P. 22-29. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.52957/2782-1927-2024-5-3-22-29. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/VZURKE

4. Uspayeva, M. G. State data security in the context of sanctions and economic pressure / M. G. Uspayeva, A. M. Gachaev // Management of Education: Theory and Practice. – 2023. – No. 6(64). – P. 76-85. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.25726/w9269-5289-1129-g. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/USPGCE

5. Bogdanov, V. V. Podhody evropeyskiy uchenyh k opredeleniyu i ocenke tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta / V. V. Bogdanov // Ekonomika stroitel'stva. – 2024. – № 11. – S. 41-45. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/KANRIA

6. Danilova, E. N. Kak priobschali inostrannyh rabochih i specialistov k sovetskoy sisteme (pervaya polovina 1930-h gg.) / E. N. Danilova // Klio. – 2015. – № 2(98). – S. 112-119. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/TJWQYJ

7. Kulichihina, A. L. Podhody k ocenke tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta / A. L. Kulichihina // Vestnik nauki. – 2025. – T. 4, № 5(86). – S. 162-169. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/PORTTB

8. Masal'skiy, M. G. Ekonomicheskie sankcii. vliyanie ekonomicheskih sankciy na Rossiyskuyu Federaciyu / M. G. Masal'skiy // Ekonomika i socium. – 2022. – № 4-3(95). – S. 95-97. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/EUFDCQ

9. Medvedeva, N. V. Podhody k ocenke dostizheniya tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta / N. V. Medvedeva // Voprosy innovacionnoy ekonomiki. – 2024. – T. 14, № 1. – S. 91-104. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.18334/vinec.14.1.120653. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/XLUCXL

10. Meerovich, M. G. SSSR kak megaproekt / M. G. Meerovich // Sovetskiy proekt. 1917-1930-e gg.: etapy i mehanizmy realizacii : Sbornik nauchnyh trudov / FGAOU VO «Ural'skiy federal'nyy universitet imeni pervogo Prezidenta Rossii B. N. El'cina». – Ekaterinburg : Ural'skiy federal'nyy universitet imeni pervogo Prezidenta Rossii B.N. El'cina, 2018. – S. 28-39. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/YPUGPR

11. Minpromtorg Rossii. Strategiya razvitiya farmacevticheskoy promyshlennosti. Itogi 2023. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://minpromtorg.gov.ru/activity/opk/pharmaceutical/# (prezentacii i otchety v razdele).

12. Mincifry Rossii. Doklad o realizacii politiki importozamescheniya v sfere IT. 2024. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://digital.gov.ru/ru/activity/directions/importozameshchenie/.

13. Mincifry Rossii. Otchet o razvitii IT-otrasli. Reestr otechestvennogo PO. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://digital.gov.ru/ru/activity/statistic/.

14. Modernizaciya ekonomiki Rossii. Kn. 1 : itogi i perspektivy : v 2-h kn. / redaktor E. G. Yasin. — Moskva : Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki, 2003. — 296 s.. — ISBN 5-75980-207-0. URL: https://library.cbr.ru/pdf-viewer/?id=67323

15. Myzrova, O. A. Tehnologicheskiy suverenitet: metodicheskiy podhod k ocenke / O. A. Myzrova, T. V. Goryacheva // Aktual'nye problemy ekonomiki i menedzhmenta. – 2024. – № 1(41). – S. 63-71. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/BFSVWL

16. Polterovich V. Strategii modernizacii, instituty i koalicii. Voprosy ekonomiki. 2008;(4):4-24. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2008-4-4-24 EDN: https://elibrary.ru/IJIGRB

17. Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva RF № 603 ot 15.04.2023 «Ob utverzhdenii prioritetnyh napravleniy proektov tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta i proektov strukturnoy adaptacii ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federacii i Polozheniya ob usloviyah otneseniya proektov k proektam tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta i proektam strukturnoy adaptacii ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federacii, o predstavlenii svedeniy o proektah tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta i proektah strukturnoy adaptacii ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federacii i vedenii reestra ukazannyh proektov, a takzhe o trebovaniyah k organizaciyam, upolnomochennym predstavlyat' zaklyucheniya o sootvetstvii proektov trebovaniyam k proektam tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta i proektam strukturnoy adaptacii ekonomiki Rossiyskoy Federacii» [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL http://government.ru/docs/all/147043/

18. Rossiyskie korporacii v novoy real'nosti. Finansovye strategii na puti k antihrupkosti / A. E. Abramov, R. B. Aliev, A. E. Anilov [i dr.]. – Moskva : Nacional'nyy issledovatel'skiy universitet «Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki», 2024. – 360 s. – ISBN 978-5-7598-4107-4. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.17323/978-5-7598-4107-4. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/XUXDJO

19. Rosstat. Indeks potrebitel'skih cen. Valovoy vnutrenniy produkt. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts (oficial'nye dannye).

20. Rosstat. Indeksy promyshlennogo proizvodstva. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/industries (dannye za 2023 g.).

21. Rosstat. Promyshlennoe proizvodstvo v Rossii. Statisticheskiy sbornik. – M.: Rosstat, 2023. – 259 s.

22. Skvorcova V. A., Leont'ev A.M., Skvorcov A.O. Vneshneekonomicheskoe sotrudnichestvo Rossii s novymi partnerami po BRIKS v usloviyah antirossiyskih sankciy / V. A. Skvorcova, A. M. Leont'ev, A. O. Skvorcov // Ekonomika i predprinimatel'stvo. – 2025. – № 6(179). – S. 438-442. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.34925/EIP.2025.179.6.077. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/EOEHBG

23. Sobirov, B. Sh. Kollaboraciya biznesa i nauki kak faktor reinzhiniringa kompanii / B. Sh. Sobirov // Nauchnoe otrazhenie. – 2020. – № 4(22). – S. 63-65. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/WABTFD

24. FTS Rossii. Vneshnyaya torgovlya Rossiyskoy Federacii. [Elektronnyy resurs]. URL: https://customs.gov.ru/statistic/vneshn-torg?ysclid=mj2yhdffj1440969027

25. Shpotov, B. M. Uchastie amerikanskih promyshlennyh kompaniy v sovetskoy industrializacii, 1928-1933 gg / B. M. Shpotov // Ekonomicheskaya istoriya: ezhegodnik. – 2005. – T. 2005. – S. 172-196.

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

PDF JATS XML

Executive editor

Maksim Markin

markinmi@ystu.ru

Chief Editor

Valery Gordeev

vagordeev@rambler.ru

Deputy Editor-in-Chief

Marina Mayorova

mayorovama@ystu.ru

Deputy editor-in-chief

Galina Rodina

galinarodina@mail.ru

1573

downloads

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Creative Commons

GOST

Paromov A. Y., Elkina O. S. Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index // Theoretical economics. 2026. no. 1. pp. 28-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45. (Date of access 30.09.2026).

MLA

Aleksey Paromov, Elkina O. S.. "Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index." Theoretical economics.1 (2026): 28-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45.

APA

Paromov A. Y., Elkina O. S. (2026). Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index. Theoretical economics(1), 28-45. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45

Chicago

Aleksey Paromov, Elkina O. S.. "Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index." Theoretical economics, no. 1 (2026): 28-45. https://doi.org/10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Paromov A. Y., Elkina O. S. | title = Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index | journal = Theoretical economics | year = 2026 | issue = 1 | pages = 28-45 | doi = 10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-28-45 }}

Copy

Export: BibTeX EndNote RefMan RusMARC

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AS A CATALYST FOR STRUCTURAL CHANGE: ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION BASED ON THE INTEGRAL INDEX Economic Sanctions as a Catalyst for Structural Change: Assessing the Effectiveness of Import Substitution Based on the Integral Index

Confirmation