Assessing the prospects of anti-sanctions measures at the macro- and meso-levels: theoretical and expert approaches

Anna Kosobuckaya; Yuriy Treschevskiy; Pavel Kanapuhin; Foka Maketche

ASSESSING THE PROSPECTS OF ANTI-SANCTIONS MEASURES AT THE MACRO- AND MESO-LEVELS: THEORETICAL AND EXPERT APPROACHES Assessing the prospects of anti-sanctions measures at the macro- and meso-levels: theoretical and expert approaches

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Issue 4 · Pages 63–78 · Rubric: ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF THEORETICAL ECONOMY

Received: 04.03.2023 Accepted: 18.03.2023 Published: 02.05.2024

Authors

Anna Kosobuckaya

ORCID

Yuriy Treschevskiy

ORCID

Pavel Kanapuhin

ORCID

Foka Maketche

Anna Kosobuckaya

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Voronezh State University Voronezh

ORCID

Yuriy Treschevskiy

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Voronezh State University Voronezh

ORCID

Pavel Kanapuhin

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Voronezh State University Voronezh

ORCID

Foka Maketche

Voronezh State University Voronezh

ABSTRACT

Objective. To evaluate the prospects of anti-sanctions measures at the macro- and meso-levels in relation to the threats to the economy posed by sanctions of unfriendly states; to identify the fea-tures of the evaluation by different institutional groups of experts. Research Methods. Mono-graphic method - analysis of the theoretical positions expressed by domestic scientists with re-gard to the prospects of anti-sanctions measures at the macro- and meso-levels. The expert method was employed to determine the significance of anti-sanctions measures for stabilizing the economy of Russia and its regions. Due to the high degree of uncertainty in the assessed object state (projected anti-sanctions measures), the method of fuzzy sets was applied to process the information array. List of experts: representatives of business – 20 persons; representatives of education and research community – 24 persons; representatives of executive bodies of the Voronezh region state power – 24 persons. The assessment was carried out based on two pa-rameters of the proposed measures: the power of influence and the implementation probability. Comprehensive assessment, simultaneously taking into account the impact of both parameters, was conducted for all proposed measures for each institutional group on the basis of the tradi-tional tools of fuzzy logic. Results and discussion. The list of promising anti-sanctions measures formulated by the researchers is extremely wide. It is unlikely that they will be applied in their full scope. This required recourse to expert assessments. Experts formulated 30 promising anti-sanction measures. Experts considered five of the originally named thirty anti-sanction measures to be the most significant. The main results include the following provisions. Experts from business and executive authorities consider the most significant (taking into account the proba-bility of their implementation) support for existing production facilities, innovative development of technical and technological processes, increasing the availability of loans aimed at increasing production and competitiveness of enterprises. Enterprise subsidies are preferable as support methods. One promising measure belongs to the indirect group of measures – SME tax benefits. Federal measures to support enterprises are more important. The most optimistic group are ex-perts from executive authorities, their aggregate assessment of the most significant measures is the highest; the most pessimistic are experts from the research and educational community. The following were identified as significant threats: a general increase in the expenditures of compa-nies in the region; a decrease in the purchasing power of the region's population. The above four measures (subsidies) correlate clearly with these threats. At the same time, the first most im-portant measure – federal tax benefits for SME development and growth of working capital – does not directly correlate with any of the threats. In addition to the five most significant anti-sanction measures, experts from the executive authorities rated highly another 10 measures with the following characteristics: a wide range of goals and objects of support; differentiated set of support methods; equal distribution of measures' importance by subjects of support. The threats are sufficiently mitigated by the measures highly evaluated by the experts from the executive authorities.

KEYWORDS

threats to the regional economy, economic sanctions, anti-sanctions measures, expert method, fuzzy sets, Voronezh region

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