Experience in applying models of economic growth boundaries in new economic realities

Galina Rodina

EXPERIENCE IN APPLYING MODELS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH BOUNDARIES IN NEW ECONOMIC REALITIES Experience in applying models of economic growth boundaries in new economic realities

АА Аа

Published in Theoretical economics · Issue 6 · Pages 12–23 · Rubric: ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF THEORETICAL ECONOMY

Received: 03.05.2023 Accepted: 18.05.2023 Published: 02.05.2024

Authors

Galina Rodina

ORCID

Galina Rodina

Academic degree: doctor of economic sciences

Science rang: professor

Yaroslavskiy filial FGOBU VPO «Finansovyy universitet pri Pravitel'stve Rossiyskoy Federacii»

ORCID

ABSTRACT

The article examines the experience of applying two models of economic growth boundaries to the modern Russian economy: the production capability curve (PCC) model and the "Aggregated Demand - Aggregate Supply (AD-AS)" model. The author proceeds from the fact that each economic system is interested in maximizing the use and increase of its existing potential. This is not always possible in practice. The purpose of the article is to analyze the evolution of the domestic economy over the last thirty years. It is illustrated by models of the boundaries of economic growth. The study revealed the distinctive features of each of the two models used, their strengths and weaknesses. Various changes that the Russian economy could potentially undergo were also graphically interpreted. The provision on the insufficiently effective use of available national resources was justified. The possibilities of renewal opening up to the country were formulated. Analysis of the production capability curve model allowed us to come to the conclusion that the decision space should not be limited to a return to the pre-pandemic state or even a shift of the PCC to the right. Ideally, the shape of the production capability curve itself should change from a convex to a concave line. The analysis of the model "Aggregated demand - aggregated supply" gave rise to the understanding that the traditional recipe for the movement of the economy from a depressed state to a natural level of production through stimulating aggregated demand and increasing deficit budget financing in modern conditions has almost exhausted its potential. Today it is required to work on shifting the aggregated supply curve to the right. This made it possible to formulate the priority goal of modern national economic development - stimulating the real sector of the economy.

KEYWORDS

gross domestic product, the production capability curve, labor resources, the model "Aggregated demand – aggregated supply", the natural level of production, budget allocations, budget deficit, inflation gap

Text

Text (PDF)

Read Download

1. Analitika oficial'noy inflyacii ot Rosstata na 2023 god // Inflyacio.ru: sayt (1 iyunya 2023). – URL: https://inflatio.ru/46-infljacija-v-rossii-oficialnaja-i-realnaja.html (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

2. Boldova, K. VVP Rossii v 2023 godu: prognozy i tendencii / K. Boldova. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Otkrytyy zhurnal. – 2023. – 26 aprelya. – URL: https://journal.open-broker.ru/research/vvp-rossii-v-2023-godu/?ysclid=li75bqqgo9439191717 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

3. V Indii nazvali sankcii protiv Rossii ugrozoy sotnyam tysyach rabochih mest // RBK.ru: sayt (10 maya 2023). – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/business/10/05/2023/645b4f2c9a7947b82b183a11?ysclid=lirf48s82g549816990 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

4. V Kitae v aprele promproizvodstvo i roznichnye prodazhi vyrosli huzhe prognozov // Interfaks.ru: sayt (16 maya 2023). – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/901610 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

5. VVP Rossii // Gogov.ru: sayt (3 iyunya 2023). – URL: https://gogov.ru/articles/vvp-rf (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

6. Glaz'ev, S.Yu. O neadekvatnosti ekonomicheskogo obrazovaniya ekonomicheskim realiyam: neobhodimost' kardinal'nogo peresmotra uchebnyh programm po podgotovke menedzherov i specialistov dlya gosupravleniya / S.Yu. Glaz'ev // Voprosy politicheskoy ekonomii. – 2023. – № 2 (34). – S. 27-31. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7987701 https://zenodo.org/record/7987701.

7. Glaz'ev, S.Yu. Perspektivy razvitiya Rossii na dlinnoy volne rosta novogo tehnologicheskogo uklada / S.Yu. Glaz'ev // Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii. – 2023. – № 2 (76). – S. 27-32. – DOI:https://doi.org/10.37930/1990-9780-2023-2(76)-27-32.

8. Dinamika promyshlennogo proizvodstva v aprele 2023 goda // Rosstat.ru: sayt (31 maya 2023). – URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/207978 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

9. Drozdova, A. Nadavili na bol'noy chip / A. Drozdova, A. Konstantinov. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Kommersant'. – 2023. – 24 aprelya. – URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5954937?ysclid=lir8ris0bb600302643 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

10. Evrokomissiya uluchshila prognoz po dinamike VVP Rossii v 2023 godu // RBK.ru: sayt (15 maya 2023). – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/15/05/2023/6461fc499a794790e5c93661?ysclid=li76m3gj69808978430 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

11. Indeks PMI obrabatyvayuschih otrasley Rossii v mae vyros do 53,5 punkta // Interfaks.ru: sayt (1 iyunya 2023). – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/904241 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

12. Kapvlozheniya prirastayut specstroem // Kommersant.ru: sayt (24 maya 2023). – URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6000654?ysclid=lir7wk63eo702779861 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

13. Klyuchevaya stavka Banka Rossii // CBR.ru: sayt (9 iyunya 2023). – URL: https://cbr.ru/hd_base/KeyRate/(data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

14. Kozlov, A. MVF vdvoe povysil prognoz rosta ekonomiki Rossii v 2023 godu / A. Kozlov, A. Boyko. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Vedomosti. – 2023. – 11 aprelya. – URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2023/04/11/970476-mvf-vdvoe-povisil-prognoz?ysclid=li75ra9j4q23185674 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

15. MEA ozhidaet rekordnyy spros na neft' v mire v 2023 godu // Finam.ru: sayt (15 marta 2023). – URL: https://www.finam.ru/publications/item/mea-ozhidaet-rekordnyy-spros-na-neft-v-mire-v-2023-godu-20230315-1228/?ysclid=lird6gm7hi923902554 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

16. Nabiullina predupredila o riskah peregreva v rossiyskoy ekonomike // Interfaks.ru: sayt (9 iyunya 2023). – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/905619 (data obrascheniya: 11.06.2023).

17. Narodnoe hozyaystvo SSSR v 1990 g.: statisticheskiy ezhegodnik / Goskomstat SSSR. – M.: Finansy i statistika, 1991. – 752 s.

18. Parallel'nyy import ubivayut. Vlasti hotyat zapretit' vvoz lyubimyh rossiyanami brendov. Pod ugrozoy Acer, Asus, Cisco // CNews.ru: sayt (2 iyunya 2023). –