Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation
The relevance of the study is due to the insufficient development of a systematic approach to risk management at each stage of a foreign trade transaction, which is especially important in the context of increased uncertainty and external challenges, as well as the need to create a comprehensive methodological toolkit that allows identifying, assessing and minimizing the risks typical for all stages of foreign trade transactions. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risks of a foreign trade transaction, which includes a methodological toolkit for managing risks at all stages of a foreign trade operation, including finding a supplier and conducting preliminary negotiations, concluding a foreign trade contract, paying for and shipping goods from the seller’s warehouse, delivering goods to the buyer and customs clearance, and receiving goods by the buyer. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an original methodology that links each stage of a foreign trade transaction (from finding a supplier to receiving goods) with its inherent risks, which allows for targeted assessment and development of measures to minimize them. The authors tested their proposed methodology using the example of a conditional foreign trade transaction for the supply of equipment from China. The result of the study was a summary table of the calculation of expenses and profitability of a foreign trade transaction, demonstrating the practical applicability of the proposed methodology using the example of calculations of a transaction for importing equipment from China. The findings indicate that the developed methodology allows for forecasting, identifying and managing risks at each stage of a foreign trade transaction, including finding a supplier, concluding a contract, paying for goods, transportation, customs clearance and receiving goods, and the universality of the methodology determines its practical significance and the possibility of application by companies in the field of foreign economic activity.
risk, foreign economic activity, foreign economic transaction, risk management, risk management methodology, performance evaluation, methodological approach
1. Tereshenkova A.Yu. Analiz riskov i praktika osuschestvleniya vneshneekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti rossiyskimi kompaniyami // Ekonomicheskaya nauka segodnya. 2014. №2. s. 256-267. - URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/analiz-riskov-i-praktika-osuschestvleniya-vneshneekonomicheskoy-deyatelnosti-rossiyskimi-kompaniyami
2. Rybec D.V., Savinov Yu.A. Sovremennaya praktika ispolneniya vneshnetorgovyh sdelok // Rossiyskiy vneshneekonomicheskiy vestnik. 2012. №2. s. 72-92. - URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sovremennaya-praktika-ispolneniya-vneshnetorgovyh-sdelok
3. Afonin D. N., Afonin P. N. Sistema upravleniya tamozhennymi riskami: sostoyanie i perspektivy // Russian Journal of Management. 2020. №. 4. S. 96-100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2019-7-4-96-100.
4. Mayer N.V. Upravlenie riskami pri zaklyuchenii i ispolnenii kontraktov VED // Voprosy ekonomiki i prava. 2011. № 3. s. 267 - 270. - URL: https://www.cfin.ru/management/manufact/iea_risk.shtml
5. Akopova E.S., Voronkova O.N. Riski vneshnetorgovoy deyatel'nosti i ih minimizaciya pri zaklyuchenii vneshnetorgovogo kontrakta // Izvestiya BGU. 2019. №1. S. 64-71. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/riski-vneshnetorgovoy-deyatelnosti-i-ih-minimizatsiya-pri-zaklyuchenii-vneshnetorgovogo-kontrakta
6. Mezencova A. G. Valyutnye riski, ih vidy i osobennosti upravleniya imi v deyatel'nosti mezhdunarodnyh kompaniy / // Sovremennye problemy ekonomicheskogo razvitiya : Materialy Vserossiyskoy nauchnoy studencheskoy konferencii, Omsk, 18 aprelya 2019 goda / Otv. red. E.A. Kipervar. Omsk: Omskiy gosudarstvennyy tehnicheskiy universitet, 2019. S. 28-33. EDN SPAUHL. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_39254510_99215524.pdf
7. Trifonov Yu.V., Fomina E.A. Principy ocenki riskov kontragentov predpriyatiya // Problemy analiza riska. 2022. № 19(1). S. 42-52. URL: https://doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2022-19-1-42-52
8. Logina K.Yu., Guseva A.I. Osnovnye faktory riska pri zaklyuchenii mezhdunarodnyh kommercheskih dogovorov // Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya. 2014. № 6. URL: https://s.science-education.ru/pdf/2014/6/1497.pdf
9. Kulikova A.I., Malyshko A.V. Metodika prikladnogo analiza riskov VED predpriyatiya // Vestn. Tom. gos. un-ta. Ekonomika. 2019. №45. S. 244-266. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/metodika-prikladnogo-analiza-riskov-ved-predpriyatiya
10. Fal'chenko O.D., Stremousova E.G., Eremin A.A. Metodicheskiy instrumentariy upravleniya riskami vneshneekonomicheskoy sdelki // ETAP: ekonomicheskaya teoriya, analiz, praktika. 2024. № 2. S. 88-107. URL: https://elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_67203295_34294564.pdf
11. Fitch Ratings: [sayt]. URL: https://www.fitchratings.com/site/home (data obrascheniya: 06.06.2024).
12. Moody’s: [sayt]. URL: https://www.moodys.com/pages/default_ee.aspx
13. Standard & Poor’s: [sayt]. URL: https://www.standardandpoors.com
14. Suharev O. S. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie importozamescheniem: preodolenie ogranicheniy // Upravlenec. 2023. T. 14. № 1. S. 33-46.
15. Made-in-China: [sayt]. URL: https://www.made-in-china.com/
16. Sany Group Co., LTD: [sayt]. URL: https://www.sanyglobal.com/
17. Investing.com: [sayt]. URL: https://ru.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub-historical-data
18. Safronov S.V., Mileta V.I. Hedzhirovanie kak instrument povysheniya effektivnosti vneshnetorgovoy deyatel'nosti organizacii // Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika. 2020. № 4-3 (62). S. 36–40. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/hedzhirovanie-kak-instrument-povysheniya-effektivnosti-vneshnetorgovoy-deyatelnosti-organizatsii
19. Fal'chenko O. D., Eremin A.A. Hedzhirovanie kak instrument upravleniya valyutnymi riskami vo vneshneekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti // ETAP: ekonomicheskaya teoriya, analiz, praktika. 2023. № 1. S. 70-84. GKDZh https://elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_53857239_14552132.pdf
20. Shahurdin A. V. Primenenie instrumentov optimizacii valyutnyh riskov i debitorskoy zadolzhennosti pri osuschestvlenii vneshneekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti // Upravlenie social'no-ekonomicheskimi sistemami: Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii. V 2-h tomah, Vologda, 02–03 fevralya 2017 goda. Tom I. – Vologda: Vologodskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet, 2017. – S. 496-499. EDN YTRWGL. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=29414940
21. Shahurdin A. V. Ispol'zovanie forvardnogo kontrakta kak instrumenta hedzhirovaniya valyutnyh riskov // Konkurentosposobnost' territoriy: Materialy XIX Vserossiyskogo ekonomicheskogo foruma molodyh uchenyh i studentov: v 8 chastyah, Ekaterinburg, 27–28 aprelya 2016 goda. Tom Chast' 3. Ekaterinburg: Izdatel'stvo Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, 2016. S. 73-77. EDN XWBHBF. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_28334746_65527322.pdf
22. Central'nyy bank Rossiyskoy Federacii: [sayt]. URL: https://www.cbr.ru
23. Shestakova E.V. Kuplya-prodazha tovarov s posleduyuschey transgranichnoy postavkoy v ramkah territorii gosudarstv EAES. Pravo Dostupa, 2020. Dostup iz SPS «Garant». URL: https://ivo.garant.ru/#/document/77451380
24. Siranyuk E.S., Maydanik V.I. Formirovanie effektivnoy strategii vneshneekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti predpriyatiyami nesyr'evogo sektora ekonomiki // EUROPEAN RESEARCH: sbornik statey XIII Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii: v 2 chastyah, Penza, 07 dekabrya 2017 goda. Tom Chast' 2. Penza: «Nauka i Prosveschenie» (IP Gulyaev G.Yu.), 2017. S. 70-74. EDN YJVRPG. URL: https://www.elibrary.ru/download/elibrary_32182977_75729501.pdf
25. O vnesenii izmeneniy v nekotorye akty Pravitel'stva Rossiyskoy Federacii: Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Rossiyskoy Federacii ot 24.11.2022 № 2132 // Al'ta-Soft: [sayt]. URL: https://www.alta.ru/tamdoc/22ps2132/
