INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCED TRAINING OF EXECUTIVES AND SPECIALISTS
Federal State University of Education
Academy of Labour and Social Relations
Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
Moscow, Moscow, Russian Federation
JEL G17 Financial Forecasting and Simulation
JEL G23 Non-bank Financial Institutions • Financial Instruments • Institutional Investors
JEL G32 Financing Policy • Financial Risk and Risk Management • Capital and Ownership Structure • Value of Firms • Goodwill
JEL O16 Financial Markets • Saving and Capital Investment • Corporate Finance and Governance
The relevance of this study is determined by the fact that cryptocurrency mining has rapidly entered the country’s economic life. As is often the case, the rapid development of certain technologies requires legislative action to regulate activities related to these technologies. In August 2024, the Russian Federation adopted Federal Law No. 221-FZ «On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation» (the Mining Law), which legalized cryptocurrency mining and created an institutional framework for its regulation. By the beginning of 2026, the country had established a year-and-a-half of law enforcement practice, allowing for a comprehensive economic assessment of the consequences of legalization, which determined the choice of research topic and the formulation of its theme. The objective of this research is to conduct a comprehensive economic assessment of the consequences of the implementation of mining legislation (2024–2026), evaluate actual and projected quantitative indicators for the fourth quarter of 2025 and as of early 2026, and develop practical scenarios for the use of legalized mining as an element of Russia’s economic development. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the integration of institutional analysis with macroeconomic and energy modeling to assess the fiscal, currency, and multiplier effects of mining legalization. A formal model of the budget effect is proposed, taking into account cross-border restrictions and sanctions pressure. For the first time, based on official data from the Federal Tax Service of Russia for 2026, an assessment of the tax potential of the industry was conducted using a methodology for separate accounting of fiscal revenues and taking into account planned penalties for illegal activity. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential for use in solving economic problems and realizing the potential of mining for the development of the Russian economy.
economic problems, prospects of use, cryptocurrency mining, development of the Russian economy, fiscal effectiveness, scenario analysis
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