Murmansk Arctic University
Murmansk, Russian Federation
Murmansk Arctic University
Murmansk, Murmansk, Russian Federation
JEL R41 Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion • Travel Time • Safety and Accidents • Transportation Noise
JEL R42 Government and Private Investment Analysis • Road Maintenance • Transportation Planning
JEL Q54 Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming
VAK Russia 5.2.1
VAK Russia 5.2.5
The relevance of this study is driven by the fact that conventional horizontal and vertical analysis techniques distort the actual functioning of Arctic transport and logistics systems due to extreme seasonality, ice-related constraints, and weak infrastructure, which necessitates the development of specialized analytical approaches. The methodological foundation is based on adapting classical tools by projecting them onto the region’s specific climatic and geographic conditions, taking into account navigation windows, ice conditions, and seasonal transport constraints. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a two-level horizontal analysis with trend calculations for navigation windows and monthly volatility, as well as a seasonal decomposition of vertical analysis with the identification of navigation, winter roads, and thaw periods. It has been established that traditional annual analysis underestimates the true growth rates of cargo flows and masks the critical structural role of aviation, whose annual share obscures its key importance during the winter season and thaw period. It has been shown that ignoring seasonality leads to an underestimation of the role of winter roads and air transport, which during the shoulder seasons often serve as the only channels sustaining remote territories. It is concluded that calendar-based aggregated data do not provide a sufficient analytical basis for managing Arctic logistics. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in the possibility of using climatic volatility as a parameter for precise port capacity planning, justifying public investment in the icebreaker fleet, and building safety stocks in hard-to-reach settlements. Further research may focus on developing algorithms for operational forecasting and cargo flow reallocation based on integrating climatic data into digital logistics models of the Arctic
horizontal analysis, vertical analysis, Arctic TLS, seasonal decomposition, navigation windows, infrastructure segments, Arctic cargo flows, Northern Sea Route
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