The specter of general economic stagnation: myth or reality?
Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The article evaluates the prospects for economic growth in the Russian economy in 2025. The authors proceed from the fact that theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of market conditions have undergone significant evolution over several centuries and today are united by the recognition of both the wave-like nature of periods of economic activity and the need for scrupulous adjustment of macroeconomic policy depending on the emerging trend and the specific phase of the cycle. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current economic situation and verify the forecast regarding the upward or downward trend in the development of the Russian economy in 2025. At the same time, the authors compare the forecast indicators of the dynamics of the GDP of the Russian Federation, given at the end of 2024, and their correction based on the actual results of the functioning of the domestic economy in the first quarter of this year. The study assessed the cautiously optimistic mood at the beginning of 2025. The provision on the existence of grounds for such opinions was substantiated. An analysis of the economic development of the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2025 led to the conclusion that problems have arisen related to the exhaustion of the model that has been characteristic of recent years and which combined the rapid growth of the military-industrial complex and the receipt of oil and gas export revenues in affordable markets that have managed to withstand sanctions pressure. Further investigation led to the understanding that the forecast characteristics regarding the dynamics of GDP need to be adjusted downward. This allowed us to formulate the conclusion that in today’s dispute between researchers who tend to predict a stagnant scenario of the Russian economy and those who are more optimistic, the arguments of the former look more convincing. In practical terms, this conclusion, reached by the authors, puts macroeconomic policy in a situation of difficult choice.

Keywords:
economic growth, economic cycles, economic stagnation, fiscal policy, government budget deficit, monetary policy, inflation, sanctions pressure
Text
Text (PDF): Read Download
References

1. Analitiki opisali scenarii «myagkoy posadki» i «shoka» v ekonomike Rossii // RBK: sayt (17 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/17/04/2025/67ff92fa9a7947f9f7e467d8 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

2. Vystuplenie El'viry Nabiullinoy na plenarnom zasedanii Gosudarstvennoy Dumy, posvyaschennom rassmotreniyu Godovogo otcheta Banka Rossii za 2024 god // CBR.ru: sayt (9 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://cbr.ru/press/event/?id=23525 (data obrascheniya: 21.04.2025).

3. Grinkevich, V. Barrel' upal nizhe prognozov: chem grozit rossiyskoy ekonomike deshevaya neft' / V. Grinkevich. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Profil'. – 2025. – 18 aprelya. – URL: https://profile.ru/economy/barrel-upal-nizhe-prognozov-chem-grozit-rossijskoj-ekonomike-deshevaya-neft-1690964/ (data obrascheniya: 19.04.2025).

4. Dyatel, T. Neft' povyshennoy toksichnosti / T. Dyatel, O. Mordyushenko, A. Zanina. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Kommersant'. – 2025. – 10 yanvarya. – URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7429788 (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

5. EFSR povysil prognoz rosta VVP RF v 2025 godu // TASS.ru: sayt (16 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/23696163 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

6. Kak SShA vvodili sankcii v otnoshenii Rossii v svyazi s Ukrainoy // TASS.ru: sayt (10 yanvarya 2025). – URL: https://tass.ru/info/22853097 (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

7. Keyns, Dzh.M. Obschaya teoriya zanyatosti, procenta i deneg / Dzh.M. Keyns. – M.: Eksmo, 2007. – 960 s. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/QSKYFV

8. Kotirovki nefti ruhnuli bol'she chem na 6%, Brent torguetsya nizhe $59 za barrel' // Interfaks.ru: sayt (9 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/1020026 (data obrascheniya: 19.04.2025).

9. Marks, K. Kapital. T. 1 / K. Marks, F. Engel's. – Soch., 2-e izd. T. 23. – M.: Gosudarstvennoe izdatel'stvo politicheskoy literatury, 1960. – 907 s.

10. Marks, K. Kapital. T. 2 / K. Marks, F. Engel's. – Soch., 2-e izd. T. 24. – M.: Gosudarstvennoe izdatel'stvo politicheskoy literatury, 1961. – 648 s.

11. MVF povysil prognoz rosta mirovoy ekonomiki do 3,3% v 2025 godu // Finam.ru: sayt (17 yanvarya 2025). – URL: https://www.finam.ru/publications/item/mvf-povysil-prognoz-rosta-mirovoy-ekonomiki-do-33-v-2025-godu-20250117-1737/ (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

12. Nabrali dvesti trillionov // Kommersant.ru: sayt (9 fevralya 2025). – URL: https:// https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7495952 (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

13. Optimizm s ogovorkami i fragmentaciey // RBK: sayt (21 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2025/04/21/680244959a79474ed6391b8c (data obrascheniya: 22.04.2025).

14. Otrashkevich, E. Bank Rossii dal prognoz po inflyacii i rostu VVP / E. Otrashkevich. – Tekst : elektronnyy // Kommersant'. – 2025. – 15 aprelya. – URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7658328 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

15. OESR uluchshila prognoz po rostu VVP Rossii na 2025 god // Frankmedia.ru: sayt (17 marta 2025). – URL: https://frankmedia.ru/195134 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

16. Prognoz social'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii na 2025 god i na planovyy period 2026 i 2027 godov // Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii: sayt (30 sentyabrya 2024). – URL: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/prognoz_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rf_na_2025_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2026_i_2027_godov.html (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

17. Rikardo, D. Nachala politicheskoy ekonomii i nalogovogo oblozheniya / D. Rikardo; [per. s angl.; predislovie. P.N. Klyukina]. - M.: Eksmo, 2008. - 960 s.

18. Rost VVP RF zamedlitsya do menee chem 1% v 2025 g - prognoz YuNKTAD // MFD.ru: sayt (16 aprelya 2025). – URL: https://mfd.ru/news/view/?id=2689050 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

19. Sismondi, Zh.Sh.L.S. de Novye nachala politicheskoy ekonomii, ili O bogatstve v ego otnoshenii k narodonaseleniyu / Zh.Sh.L.S. de Sismondi. – M.: Gosudarstvennoe social'no-ekonomicheskoe izdatel'stvo, 1937. – 388 s.

20. Sovet ES utverdil 16-y paket antirossiyskih sankciy // Interfaks.ru: sayt (24 fevralya 2025). – URL: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1010462 (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

21. Tkachev, I. Samye znachitel'nye» sankcii SShA protiv neftegaza Rossii. Chto vazhno znat' / I. Tkachev, S. Gusev // RBK.ru: sayt (11 yanvarya 2025). – URL: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/11/01/2025/67814ae89a7947826b759802 (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2024).

22. Shohin: vklady na 55 trln rubley mozhno privlech' v hode «bol'shoy privatizacii» // TASS.ru: sayt (24 marta 2025). – URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/23481623 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

23. «Ekonomicheskaya tablica» Kene // Chagan - Eks-le-Ben. - M.: Sovetskaya enciklopediya, 3-e izd., 1978. - (Bol'shaya sovetskaya enciklopediya: [v 30 t.] / gl. red. A.M. Prohorov; 1969—1978, t. 29.

24. Eksport uglya iz Rossii // TAdviser.ru: sayt (17 yanvarya 2025). – URL: https://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/Stat'ya:Eksport_uglya_iz_Rossii (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).

25. Bloomberg: zapadnye kompanii ne ustraivayut usloviya vozvrascheniya v Rossiyu // Kommersant'. – 2025. – 17 aprelya. – URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7659955 (data obrascheniya: 17.04.2025).

26. Brent dorozhaet bolee chem na 1% na dannyh o sokraschenii zapasov nefti v SShA // Finam.ru: sayt (27 dekabrya 2024). – URL: https:// https://www.finam.ru/publications/item/brent-dorozhaet-bolee-chem-na-1-na-dannykh-o-sokrashchenii-zapasov-nefti-v-ssha-20241227-2152/ (data obrascheniya: 10.04.2025).


Login or Create
* Forgot password?