The article examines the current state and development prospects of the Russian metallurgical industry amid geoeconomic instability during 2022–2025. The authors analyze the impact of sanctions, rising transportation costs, and the restructuring of logistical routes on the sector’s export capabilities. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) serves as the primary methodological instrument, with its application substantiated by its timeliness, sensitivity to external economic shocks, and predictive capacity. The analysis of BCI dynamics in mining and manufacturing industries reveals a significant decline in business activity in early 2025 following the growth period of 2023–2024. Production statistics indicate a reduction in rolled metal and pig iron output, a decrease in capacity utilization to 61 percent, and deteriorating profit expectations in the mining sector. Concurrently, the study identifies a recovery in steel pipe and hollow section production, alongside stabilization in carbon steel output. The authors identify a complex of internal and external adverse factors: sanctions pressure, declining global metal prices, the elevated key rate of the Central Bank, and the contraction of the construction sector. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of structural adaptation for metallurgical enterprises through equipment modernization and technological innovation to enhance competitiveness under transformed economic conditions.