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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Theoretical economics</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Theoretical economics</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Теоретическая экономика</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">2221-3260</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">116673</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.52957/2221-3260-2026-1-108-121</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>MODERN PROBLEMS OF THE WORLD ECONOMY</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ МИРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Research on the relationship between labor productivity growth and changes in the age distribution of the population in the post-industrial world: trends and forecast</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Исследование взаимосвязи роста производительности труда и изменения возрастного распределения населения в странах постиндустриального мира: тенденции и прогноз</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2923-4316</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Чурилова</surname>
       <given-names>Ирина Геннадьевна</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Churilova</surname>
       <given-names>Irina Gennad'evna</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>igchurilova@gmail.com</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>кандидат педагогических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>candidate of pedagogical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6270-9002</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Матризаев</surname>
       <given-names>Бахадыр Джуманиязович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Matrizaev</surname>
       <given-names>Bahadyr Dzhumaniyazovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>matrizaev@mail.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>кандидат экономических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>candidate of economic sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Российский государственный университет туризма и сервиса</institution>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Russian State University of Tourism and Service</institution>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education &quot;Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation&quot; Vladikavkaz Branch</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-01-31T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>31</day>
    <month>01</month>
    <year>2026</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-01-31T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>31</day>
    <month>01</month>
    <year>2026</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>1</issue>
   <fpage>108</fpage>
   <lpage>121</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-12-10T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>10</day>
     <month>12</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2026-01-26T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>26</day>
     <month>01</month>
     <year>2026</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://theoreticaleconomy.ru/en/nauka/article/116673/view">https://theoreticaleconomy.ru/en/nauka/article/116673/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>В статье рассматриваются результаты теоретико-методологического и эмпирического исследования макроэкономических и финансовых последствий отдельных демографических синдромов постиндустриального мира и их влияния на управление трудовым потенциалом в отдельных странах через призму человеческого капитала. В частности, в статье рассматриваются состояние и перспективы старения населения и вызванное им снижение доли рабочей силы и их влияние на макроэкономическую динамику и финансовую устойчивость в странах постиндустриального мира, характеризующимися самыми высокими темпами старения населения в мире. Также, данная статья вносит вклад в понимание того, как старение населения может повлиять на совокупную факторную производительность через отдельные элементы человеческого капитала. В то время как в других отдельных исследованиях фокус внимания был направлен на общую тенденцию снижения доли труда в ВВП, оценка макроэкономических и финансовых последствий такой тенденции остаётся недостаточно изученным. В этих целях в статье основываясь на количественной модели общего равновесия жизненного цикла проводится количественный анализ влияния снижения доли труда на макроэкономические переменные и реформы системы социального обеспечения. В частности, исследование основывается на модели пересекающихся поколений, параметры которой адаптированы к отдельным странам постиндустриального мира, при этом моделируя влияние различных институтов человеческого капитала, таких как медицинское страхование и пенсионное обеспечение и др. Эмпирические данные, показывают, что снижение доли труда может быть возмещено сочетанием соответствующего макроэкономического управления и институциональными реформами, что в конечном счёте может способствовать восстановлению макрофинансовой устойчивости в странах характеризующихся старением населения и высоким уровнем государственного долга.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>The article examines the results of a theoretical, methodological and empirical study of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of certain demographic syndromes of the post-industrial world and their impact on labor potential management in individual countries through the prism of human capital. In particular, the article examines the state and prospects of population aging and the resulting decline in the share of the workforce and their impact on macroeconomic dynamics and financial stability in the post-industrial world, characterized by the highest rates of population aging in the world. This article also contributes to understanding how population aging can affect aggregate factor productivity through individual elements of human capital. While other individual studies have focused on the general downward trend in the share of labor in GDP, the assessment of the macroeconomic and financial consequences of such a trend remains poorly understood. To this end, based on a quantitative model of the general equilibrium of the life cycle, the article provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of a decrease in the share of labor on macroeconomic variables and reforms of the social security system. In particular, the study is based on the model of intersecting generations, the parameters of which are adapted to individual countries of the post-industrial world, while modeling the impact of various institutions of human capital, such as health insurance and pension provision, etc. Empirical evidence shows that the decline in the labor share can be offset by a combination of appropriate macroeconomic management and institutional reforms, which can ultimately contribute to restoring macro-financial stability in countries characterized by an aging population and high levels of public debt.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>совокупная факторная производительность</kwd>
    <kwd>демографический синдром</kwd>
    <kwd>трудовой потенциал</kwd>
    <kwd>человеческий капитал</kwd>
    <kwd>макроэкономическое управление</kwd>
    <kwd>институциональные реформы</kwd>
    <kwd>экономическая динамика</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>cumulative factor productivity</kwd>
    <kwd>demographic syndrome</kwd>
    <kwd>labor potential</kwd>
    <kwd>human capital</kwd>
    <kwd>macroeconomic management</kwd>
    <kwd>institutional reforms</kwd>
    <kwd>economic dynamics</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
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