The article examines the phenomenon of «growth without development» in the innovation sphere of the Russian Federation against the backdrop of the strategic course towards achieving technological sovereignty. The relevance of the work is due to the persistent gap between the growing resource provision for science and the stagnant performance indicators of innovation activity. The aim of the study is to identify key systemic problems hindering the effective realization of innovation potential and to provide their quantitative assessment. The methodological framework comprised methods of economic and statistical analysis, including time series analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, Student’s t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), the index method, and the Gatev coefficient of structural shifts. The empirical basis was data from Rosstat, HSE University, and materials from the Global Innovation Index (GII) for the period 2010–2024. The research results confirm the hypothesis: despite a 3.15-fold increase in nominal gross domestic expenditure on research and development, the share of innovative goods stagnates at 5–6%, and patent activity has decreased by a third. Correlation analysis revealed a strong negative relationship between funding and the number of researchers (r = -0.824), indicating a human resources crisis. A key barrier identified is institutional collapse — Russia’s drop to 131st place in the GII institutions quality ranking, with the sign test (p < 0.05) confirming the systemic nature of this degradation. Index factor analysis showed that 72.4% of the growth in innovative goods is driven by extensive factors. The obtained results can be used to adjust state scientific and technological policy and regional development strategies. The limitations of the study are related to the use of macroeconomic aggregated data. A promising direction for further research is a microeconomic analysis of factors constraining the demand for innovation in the real sector.